The Hogewash Poll

If the electoral vote count does’t award a majority of electoral votes (270 or more) to one candidate, the election of the President will be the responsibility of the House of Representatives. Under the terms of the 12th Amendment, the delegation from each state gets one vote. Although the Democrats have a majority in the House as a whole, 26 of the state delegations are majority Republican, 22 are majority Democrat, and two are evenly split. Of course, that could be changed by the next election.

The Hogewash Poll

I’ll be running these polls from Friday through Thursday each week through October with a special poll from Friday through Monday just before the election.

The results of the previous poll are here.

An Unintended Consequence

Hillary Clinton carried Colorado during the 2016 election, but when the state’s electors met to vote, one of them refused to vote for her. The Colorado Secretary of State replaced that elector with one who would vote for Clinton. The original elector sued the Secretary of State, claiming that his removal was illegal and that the State could not bind him to vote in a particular way. Yesterday, the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in the elector’s favor.

One consequence of a state’s inability to bind electors to vote a particular way is that the states who are members of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact cannot legally require their electors to cast their votes in any particular way.

The Democrats’ plan to sabotage the Electoral College may have been stopped by the action of a Democrat elector.

Nevada, Murphy’s Law, and Unintended Consequences

It looks as if Nevada may become the 15th state to give away its right under Article !!, Section 1, Clause 2 of the Constitution to determine how its electors would vote for President. NPR is reporting the likelihood of the Nevada joining the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact as if it were a good thing.

The Compact would become active if states with at least 270 electoral votes join. If that happens, the participating states would give their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. Gentle Reader, suppose enough states join. Now, suppose Donald Trump wins a majority of the popular vote.

Would that be a good thing?

Wargaming the Electoral College

Profs. Bickers and Berry of the University of Colorado are now predicting the electoral college vote as Romney 335, Obama 203. That’s essentially the inverse of Nate Silver’s guess. The Colorado model has been tested with economic data from 1980 through 2008 and correctly predicts the winner in each election. Nate Silver was right once.

Is it Tuesday yet?