This Election is Screwed Up

David Byler as a post over at Real Clear Politics that examines which of the major party candidates stands to gain the most from Gary Johnson’s Aleppo gaffe.

The RealClearPolitics polling averages suggest that Johnson may be taking slightly more of his support from Clinton than Trump. In the two-way-race average of national polls (no third parties included) Clinton leads Trump by 2.8 percentage points. But when Johnson is included, her lead drops to 2.1 points. Clinton also leads Trump by 2.1 points when Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are included.

Now, let me get this straight … the Libertarian is sucking more votes from the Democrat than he is from the Republican. My brain hurts.

Another Reason My Facebook Account Lies Fallow

John Hinderacker writes over at PowerLine about Facebook refusing an ad.

Are Facebook employees refusing, in some instances, to “boost” posts that include non-leftist points of view? I would hardly have thought it possible, in part because we have successfully boosted a number of posts that obviously had a conservative slant. But this experience leaves me wondering what other explanation there could be for Facebook’s spiking of our ad. Maybe this is one more situation where paranoia is justified.

Read the whole thing.

The Polls

In 1980, the polls said that the election would be close. That year, Mrs. Hoge and I were traveling on a business trip (the Audio Engineering Society Convention) over the weekend before the election and were driving back from New York to Nashville on election day. We had voted by absentee ballot. We were driving down I-81 and stopped in Harrisonburg, Virginia, for supper as the Sun was setting. By the time we finished, got back on the road, and turned on the car radio, the election coverage was effectively over. As voting was ending in the East, the size of the blowout was already evident. Ronald Reagan was crushing Jimmy Carter. He secured more than the 270 electoral votes needed before voting hours were over on the West Coast. President Reagan carried 44 states and received 489 electoral votes.

At this point in the 1988 election cycle, Michael Dukakis had a double-digit lead in the polls.

I have no idea how this election will go. I am unalterably opposed to Hillary Clinton, and I view Donald Trump as the lesser of two evils. I’ve written before that I will probably vote for whichever third-party candidate seems likely to collect more popular votes than the others. My reason is simple. Maryland is the bluest of the blue states. Trump can’t carry the state unless it’s a 48- or 49-state blowout, and Maryland’s electoral votes would be lost in the noise in such an election. However, if a third-party gets at least 5 % of the national popular vote this year, its candidate will be entitled to federal matching fund in 2020. I find the thought of the Libertarians getting federal matching funds humorous. I also believe that having a better funded Libertarian or Green Party candidate would have a beneficial effect on the two major parties.

If you live in a deep red or deep blue state, you may want to consider my voting strategy. But if you live in a true battleground state, you should really vote for whichever of the two major candidates you think will do the lesser harm.