Nothing To See Here. Move Along!

WaPo reports that the FBI found … oh, here it is in their own words—

That review has not found any apparent business advantage to the types of classified information in Trump’s possession, these people said. FBI interviews with witnesses so far, they said, also do not point to any nefarious effort by Trump to leverage, sell or use the government secrets. Instead, the former president seemed motivated by a more basic desire not to give up what he believed was his property, these people said.

The people familiar with the matter cautioned that the investigation is ongoing, that no final determinations have been made, and that it is possible additional information could emerge that changes investigators’ understanding of Trump’s motivations. But they said the evidence collected over a period of months indicates the primary explanation for potentially criminal conduct was Trump’s ego and intransigence.

Funny how that leaked the week after the midterm elections.

And Just Like That …

… the vote tally in Maryland’s 6th Congressional District flipped.

After the early, election day, and initial mail-in ballots were counted, the Republican challenger Neil Parrott had a 4,457 vote lead out of the 201,035 counted. A 2.26 % spread is usually outside the margin of theft. Usually.

However, Montgomery County has begun its count of mail-in ballots received with postmarks on or before election day. This morning, the Democrat incumbent David Trone has taken a 5,934 vote out of 222,796 lead. So out of the 21,761 mail-in ballots received by Montgomery County since election day, Trone received 10,391 more votes than Parrott. That’s roughly the same 3:1 ratio favoring Trone as the previously counted mail-in vote.

The other counties in the district have not yet reported their post-election mail-in counts, and ballots postmarked on or before election day can be counted if they are received as late as next Friday. Counting of provisional ballots cast on election day begins next Wednesday.

It probably doesn’t matter what mail-in and provisional vote counts are in Frederick, Washington, Allegany, and Garrett Counties. There won’t be enough of them.

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.

Republicans are going to have to learn to play by the new rules.

Further Post Mortem Rumblings

Continued reflections on yesterday’s elections—

The Trump Factor. I agree with Megan McArdle’s third point.The Republican loss for governor in Maryland is an example of her third point. Trump backed Dan Cox in the primary. The alternative to Cox was a RINO with close ties to the popular sitting RINO governor. A Republican can’t win a statewide race in Maryland without substantial support from Democrats, and Cox lost by a 2:1 margin, essentially the ratio of Democrat to Republican voter registration in the state.

UPDATE—Trump isn’t solely to blame for the GOP’s poor performance yesterday. Polling consistently showed that most Americans believe the country is not on the right track. The Republicans never framed a coherent message explaining what they proposed to do to redirect the country in a better direction. Except in a few exceptional races, they never gave the public something to vote for.

UPDATE 2—This should be strike three for Beto O’Rourke.

UPDATE 3—Here’s an example of what a strong candidate with a resonating message can do. It turns out that Lee Zelden probably had coattails even when he lost in his own race. Take a look at the House race maps for 2020 and 2022.It appears that Republican house candidates did much better this year in the Hudson Valley and the west end of Long Island. They have flipped at least two seats, including the one held by Sean Maloney—the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Florida is another example. Two seats were flipped with Ron DeSantis at the top of that state’s Republican ticket.

Both Zelden and DeSantis were credible candidates who told the public what they would to help improve their states. Florida said, “Yes, please, we’d like some more.” New York said, “No, thanks, we’d like more of the same.” I suspect the cost of renting a U-Haul from Rochester to Pensacola will be going up soon.

UPDATE 4—With respect to the flip of NY-17, Chef Boyardee was unavailable for comment.

The Good, The Bad, and The Interesting

Well, that election isn’t working out as the polling suggested, but there were a few good races. Consider FL-1. Matt Gaetz held the seat for Republican, crushing accused felon Rebekah Jones with a better than 2:1 margin. Consider TN-5, my old home district. Andy Ogles will be the first Republican to represent that district. Ever.

And in the deep blue state of Maryland, I live in a deep red county. No Democrat won any of the local races here in Carroll County. While all of the statewide races were won by Democrats, none of them received as much as 32 percent of the vote here.

The generally bad performance of Republicans in holding (PA) or flipping (GA, AZ) senate seats may give Chuck Schumer another two years as Majority Leader—and to confirm judges. That would be very bad.

While no one was paying attention something interesting has been going on in MD-6. David Trone was expected to hold the seat for the Democrats, and the last polling showed him up about 6 percent. He was more than 10,000 votes ahead in the early voting and the mail in ballots counted on election day. However, with all precincts reporting their election day results Neil Parrott has a 4,457 vote lead out of the 201,035 counted so far. A 2.26 percent lead is generally outside the margin of theft, but Trone has a better than 3:1 edge in the mail in ballots counted to date, and mail ballots postmarked by election day can be counted as late as the second Friday after the election (the 18th). Also, not all of the mail in ballots that have arrived have been counted. Some are being held to be counted with the provisional ballots. (Counting the provisional ballots begins on 16 November, the second Wednesday after the election.) The State Board of Elections claims this helps preserve the secrecy of the provisional ballots.

Some mail-in ballots will be counted when the provisional ballots are counted. This helps preserve the secrecy of the votes on provisional ballots. For example, if only one voter in a precinct voted a provisional ballot, it is possible you could know how that voter voted. If five mail-in ballots are counted with that provisional ballot, the selections of the provisional voter remain secret.

Of course, it also provides a reservoir of votes to be found for the proper candidate. MD-6 shouldn’t be too close to call, but it is.

Stay tuned.

Oh, one more thing … I selected today’s Quote of the Day on Monday. Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.

Election Coverage at The Other Podcast

Stacy McCain, Dianna Deeley, and I will be live beginning at 7pm ET.

Here’s the link to the first 2 hours of the program—
https://www.podbean.com/lsw/2GvXFGEsEm?lsid=z9w2Lh85TV2

The current live feed is—
https://www.podbean.com/liveroom/?channel_id=2GvXFGEsEm&live_task_id=n8a2nc8wTwV

Because of connectivity problems, we were unable to get all the way through our coverage.

I Voted

As of 8:30 this morning, the turnout at our precinct was brisk, but not unusually high. In Maryland, it’s a foregone conclusion that all of the statewide races will be won by Democrats. Also, the latest gerrymander has left all but one of the congressional seats as safe for the Ds.

Here in Carroll County, it’s a foregone conclusion that all of the local races will be won by Republicans. You see, there are no Democrats running in any of the partisan local races. There are three Democrats on the ballot in non-partisan school board election, but it’s unlikely that any on them, even the incumbent running for reelection, will win.

Carroll County counts ballots quickly. We should know our local results before midnight.

Stay tuned.

Election Coverage at The Other Podcast

Stacy McCain, Dianna Deeley, and I will be back at our microphones for a special edition of The Other Podcast tonight. We’ll be reviewing the election returns as they come in beginning at 7pm ET.

Here’s the link to the first three hours of the program—
https://www.podbean.com/lsw/2GvXFGEsEm?lsid=z9w2Lh85TV2

And here’s the link to the second three hours beginning at 10 pm ET—
https://www.podbean.com/lsw/2GvXFGEsEm?lsid=z9w2Lh85TV2

Team Kimberlin Post of the Day

In October, 2016, Brett Kimberlin testified under oath that he and his group of hackers were working with the Department of Justice on election security. On 7 November, 2016, a post by Bill Schmalfeldt at Kimberlin’s Breitbart Unmasked website made the following prediction—

Punditry is a dangerous business. But at the moment, we feel our scenario of Secretary Clinton winning 317-221 makes the most sense.

Clearly, The Deadbeat Protector Kimberlin and his minions blew it in 2016.

BTW, while the Protect Our Elections website has been up and running with a working DONATE button, it hasn’t said a word about what Kimberlin is actually doing this year.

 

A Special Edition of The Other Podcast

Stacy McCain, Dianna Deeley, and I will be back at our microphones for a special edition of The Other Podcast tomorrow evening. We’ll be reviewing the election returns as they come in beginning at 7pm ET.

Here’s the link to the first three hours of the program—
https://www.podbean.com/lsw/2GvXFGEsEm?lsid=z9w2Lh85TV2

And here’s the link to the second three hours beginning at 10 pm ET—
https://www.podbean.com/lsw/2GvXFGEsEm?lsid=z9w2Lh85TV2

Because of connectivity problems, we were unable to get all the way through our coverage.

Signs and Portents?

A total eclipse of the Moon will be visible in the hours just before dawn on Election Day next week. This is the first Election Day total eclipse in the history of the United States.

According to the historian Josephus, Herod the Great died after an eclipse of the moon. That eclipse was visible in Jerusalem in the early morning hours a month before Passover in 4 BC.

It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over

My sense of the mood of the country and the results I’m seeing published in polls lead me to expect that next week’s elections will result in significant gains by Republicans. The House and Senate should flip, and so should many state and local offices. We might even see Republicans winning in states such as Oregon.

We might, but the fat lady hasn’t sung yet.

What she sings depends on whether the crest of the expected red wave peaks sufficiently over the margin of theft.

Vote, and do it on election day. Early voting provides data about how many votes need to be found at 3 am on Wednesday. Failure to vote provides a voter registration to be found at 3 am.

A Civic Duty

This may come as a shock to some of the Gentle Readers, but there are people out there who don’t believe the 2020 elections were fair and honest. They feel they were stolen. It’s not good for a large portion of the electorate to believe they were cheated. Therefore, it’s important that as many candidates win with vote counts outside the margin of theft.

Let me be clear about what I mean. Consider the following election scenario.

After the legitimate votes have been countered, the results are as follows:

Candidate R 1,227,500
Candidate D 1,225,000
Candidate 3 50,000

It turns out that most of the vote counters are affiliated with the D party, so they begin to look for “missing” votes, and they “find” them in a county where the D:R voter registration is 10:1 and the usual vote favors the Ds by 5:1. The actual turnout in the county was a bit low (lack of enthusiasm for Candidate D), but they are able to “find” 13,000 ballots without exceeding the total registration numbers for the county. When those votes are added, the result becomes

Candidate R 1,229,500
Candidate D 1,235,000
Candidate 3 51,000

That’s the sort of fraud that is possible when the vote between to top two candidates is only 0.2 percent apart. If the same 2,500,000 voter turnout had left larger margin, the search of “missing” votes would have had to expand beyond safe precincts into more competitive areas. A 2 percent spread is hard to overcome. A 4 percent spread is safer.

One of the best things we can do to make sure the election is fair is to cast our own ballots that can be legitimately counted rather than leave our unvoted registration as a vote to be “found.”

So go vote on election day.

Don’t Get Cocky, But …

… the scenario I suggested on 22 January, 2021, seems to be playing out as scripted.

I suspect that the Democrats will have a brief but spectacular run at messing up the economy or getting us into some nasty foreign entanglement. In a burst of overreach not unlike the passing of Obamacare (“We have to pass the bill in order to find out what’s in it.”), they will quickly find themselves in a-bridge-too-far land. It’s inevitable because they simply cannot follow the wisdom in Oscar Wilde’s bon mot: “One should always play fairly when one has the winning cards.” They cheat even when they don’t have to.

The next couple of years are going to be brutal. The following two won’t be much better.

Earlier this year, I wrote this—

As the Democrats have been failing in most of their overreach for the last year-and-a-half and as the effects of the Xiden Administration’s incompetence compound, it’s becoming more likely that the Republicans will take control of at least one of the houses of Congress in the next election. If that happens, I don’t expect the Democrats to take their L and leave quietly. In that case, the last two months of 2022 will be very, very ugly.

It seems to me that the Democrats quickly realized that they would be turned out by the midterm elections. They’ve been willing to ruin the economy with facially corrupt legislation in order to transfer as much wealth as possible to themselves and their supporters. The “Inflation Reduction Act” was their big haul.

Abortion, racism, and January 6 are the issues the Democrats would like to campaign on, but it’s inflation, illegal immigration, energy, and education that the voters seem to care about. The Democrats and the public seem to be on opposite sides of those issues. Whether the election is a red ripple or a tsunami, control of Congress is likely to change.

But will things get better?

The next two years will be interesting.

Team Kimberlin Post of the Day

Brett Kimberlin’s not-for-profit Protect Our Election/EMPR Inc. has recently begun posting new material on its website, but most of pages are still very stale. Consider the Take Action page. This what it looked like yesterday evening—There have been [checks notes] several elections since 2011 and several other hot button issues beside the Supreme Court’s Citizens United case, but apparently none have been of sufficient interest to The Deadbeat Protector Kimberlin to be worth the effort of updating this page.

Or maybe he’s been too busy with the EMPR media Ukrainian news website.

L’etat c’est nous

New Class Traitor has a post over at Spin, Strangeness, and Charm about what Putin and the woke Brahmandarins have in common.

They are both looking to set up neo-feudal systems with themselves at the top, with a willing clerisy as enforcers looking to ‘cancel’ anyone who isn’t down with the program.

Both greatly benefit the feudal lieges at the top (cf. Orwell’s “Inner Party”), somewhat benefit those staffing the clerisy and enforcement apparatus (cf. Orwell’s Outer Party), and fornicate over the vast majority of their “Proles” — aside from this or that mascot group that is temporarily useful to their regimes.

And since neither is able to substantially and durably deliver the goods to the Proles (except the illusion thereof, in the alleged fashion of Prince Gregory Potemkin), the one thing both have to do to legitimize their rule is find some “fascist” or “Nazi” monster that they are supposedly fighting.

Read the whole thing.

Brexit, Trump, Orban, and Meloni, aren’t fascist-inspired or neofascists. They’re the result of what happens when the proles begin to understand how The System has been rigged. This November, the proles may not let the wokies win.

That Sucking Sound You Hear …

… is inflation cleaning out your wallet. The Consumer Price Index for August was up 8.3 % over August, 2021. That was higher than the “expected” rate.

The CPI’s food index rose 11.4% in August, the worst year-over-year increase since Jimmy Carter was President. (The Gentle Reader may remember that I once optimistically hoped that the Xiden Administration would be Carter’s second term.)

And the Dow fell about 500 points after the worse-than-“expected” inflation report.

Law Enforcement Priorities

Item 1: A Texas sheriff will investigate DeSantis’ flight of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard. Sheriff Javier Salazar of Bexar County (which includes San Antonio) has opened a criminal investigation into Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. The sheriff said in a news release Monday that his office is investigating whether the migrants who were flown to Martha’s Vineyard were victims of crimes

Item 2: NY DA launches probe into fraud allegations over Zeldin nomination. The Albany County, New York, district attorney is reportedly moving forward with a probe into election-fraud allegations connected to the nomination of the Republican candidate for governor the same week absentee ballots are being sent out in the high-stakes race against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.

I’m reminded of a saying from another politicized policeman—

Show me the man, and I’ll show you the crime.

—Lavrentiy Beria

Rebekah Jones Criminal Trial Date Set

(H/T, @MaxNordau) In 2020, Rebekah Jones was fired from her job at the Florida Department of Health. She allegedly gained unauthorized access to the Department’s computer systems after she was fired which resulted in her being charged with a felony Offense Against Users of Computers, Computer System, Computer Networks, and Electronic Devices. Her trial has been set for 23 January, 2023.Last month, Jones won the Democrat nomination for Congress in the 1st District in Florida. It will be interesting to see how this affects that race.

No, Joe, They Won’t Need F-15s

Once again, Joe Xiden has threatened to use the regular forces of the U.S. military against citizens who might actively resist one or more of his unconstitutional or illegal acts. Speaking in Pennsylvania today, he called for a federal ban on so-called “assault weapons.” Of course, the Supreme Court has just reversed and remanded the appeals court decision upholding Maryland’s “assault weapons” ban, but that hasn’t dulled Xiden’s lust for unconstitutional federal legislation.

Xiden also said—

You can’t go out and buy an automatic weapon, you can’t go out and buy a cannon, and for those brave right wing Americans who say its all about keeping America independent and safe, if you want to fight against the country you need an F-15. You need something a little more than a gun.

There are so many false statements there. You can go out and buy and automatic weapon. It has to be one that’s in the current registry of such weapons (over 150,000 such weapons are registered), you have to pass a background check, and you have to pay for a $200 tax stamp, but you can buy one. It’s also legal to buy a cannon. The process is similar to buying a machine gun.

IIRC, the last time veteran’s took up arms against a government, it was a local government, and the trigger for that action was a stolen election. You can read about The Battle of Athens here.

And finally, Xiden might want to think about how ragtag group of peasants with small arms handled modern armies and air forces in Afghanistan during the last four decades.

Meanwhile, in Florida’s 1st Congressional District

Maryland Peace Order process abuser Rebekah Jones has won the Democrat primary and will face incumbent Matt Gaetz in the general election. She carried about 62 % of the primary vote. Gaetz received about 69 % of the Republican votes.

Given that Gaetz/s share of the Republican tally (58,283) was over twice the total vote in Democrat primary (27,085), Jones shouldn’t have to worry about traveling back from Washington for her pending criminal cases in Tallahassee.