Math is Hard

From January to May, the Consumer Price Index rose 3.9 %. That’s an annual rate of 9.5 %.

The last time the CPI was rising at a comparable rate was from 1979 to 1981—

1979  11.3 %
1980  13.5 %
1981  10.3 %

Carter’s second term is beginning to look like the best-case scenario.

BTW, I looked over some old financial records, and while my raises averaged about 9 % each year during the Carter Administration (mostly because of promotions), my paychecks didn’t keep up with inflation.

Harbingers of Stagflation

The recent employment report was expected to show around a million new jobs. Only around a quarter of a million were created. The Consumer Price Index for April rose 4.2 %, even greater than the expected 3.6 % inflation.

And in other news, the Xiden administration wants to dump multiple trillions of deficit spending into the economy.

Carter’s second term is beginning to look like the best case scenario.

I wonder how badly the values of my 401k and IRA will be hit.

Solving the Problem of Woke Math

There’s an excellent review of woke math over at Legal Insurrection. Go read it; it does a better job of summarizing the danger to our society.

However, I have a suggestion about how to shutdown woke math education in the schools. Simply calculate the pay of any teacher or education bureaucrat using or promoting woke math on the basis of 2 + 2 = 3.

Quote of the Day

Marxism is a flight from the magic of the person and the mystique of hierarchy. It distorts the character of western culture, which is based on the charismatic power of person. Marxism can work only in pre-industrial societies of homogeneous populations. Raise the standard of living, and the rainbow riot of individualism will break out. Personality and art, which Marxism fears and censors, rebound from every effort to oppress them.

—Camille Pagila

A $15 Dollar an Hour Minimum Wage is Racist

All the arguments that have been presented for increasing the minimum wage to 15 bucks an hour rely on claims that a lesser wage does not provided enough money to a worker. Such claims are based in the use of arithmetic to compute the worker’s financial status and implicitly endorse the proposition that there is such a thing as a “right answer.” However, it now received educational theory that the very idea of a “right answer” is a racist concept. Thus, in order to advance minorities and suppress white supremacy, it is vital that we not only defeat the Fight for Fifteen but also must also repeal the existing minimum wage laws that have been used as tools of oppression for decades.

I’m So Old …

… I remember when we reformed what was then called “welfare as we know it.”

I remember that Joe Xiden voted for the Welfare Reform Act in 1996, but it seems that he’s changed what little is left of his mind. According to a report by The Heritage Foundation, the Administration’s welfare plan would significantly raise cash grants while ending existing work obligations in the current child credit program. It abandons any link between work and welfare established by welfare reform in the 1990s and goes back to the principle of unconditional entitlement to taxpayer-funded benefits.

Transferring Money From Red States to Blue

The fifty states have functioned as laboratories of democracy in their varied responses to the Wuhan Virus Pandemic. For the most part, it’s been the blue states who have done the most damage to their economies, and it’s these states that the Democrats in Congress want to bail out.

It might be wise for Congress to review some basic principles of planning and economics before they act. I’m providing a link to a basic economics text at Amazon that should be simple enough for most of the members of the House and Senate to understand.

Unjust Justice

Rev. William Barber has a post over at In These Times about The Fight for a $15 Minimum Wage Is a Fight for Racial Justice. He quotes a loose translation of the beginning of the 10th chapter of Isaiah in support of his argument—

Woe unto those who legislate evil and rob the poor of their rights, who make women and children their prey.

I agree with Rev. Barber that those of us who are better off have an obligation to treat the poor justly and to compassionately care for widows and the fatherless. However, I believe the minimum wage increase he supports will hurt rather than help the poor. Indeed, passing such a law will be legislating an evil.

The general effect of increasing the minimum wage is to price workers with marginal skills out of the labor market. Businesses don’t have bottomless funds from which they pay wages. They can only extract so much revenue from their customers, and that money must be divided among paying for inventory, rent, wages, and other expenses. A minimum wage bill doesn’t make expenses like rent disappear, so a business only has so much it can divide among its workers for payroll. When the law artificially increases each worker’s pay, simple arithmetic shows that fewer workers can be paid before the money is gone. Business that survive will keep their best employees and fire marginal workers. Business that grow will hire fewer workers.

Not every worker who loses his job because of a minimum wage increase will remain unemployed. Some will find work off-the-books in the informal economy, but increasing the minimum wage invariably increase unemployment among our poorest citizens.

We Americans generally believe that everyone has a right to work to support himself and family. Is it just to pass a law artificially pricing poor workers out of the labor market? I don’t think so.

CZ Buys Colt

The Czech gun manufacturer CZG has announced that it will acquire all of Colt’s business for $220 million and about 1.1 million new shares of the Czech firm’s stock.

I’m not surprised. I’ve often thought that there would be good synergy between the two companies’ engineering departments and that CZ’s management would be able to straighten out Colt’s history of chronic mismanagement.

CZ is building a factory in Arkansas. It will be interesting to see how long it will take for Connecticut’s anti-gun policies to drive Colt’s manufacturing from Hartford to Little Rock.

In Re Game Stop

You’d think that certain whining investment “professionals” would have read enough prospectuses to know that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Now they are shocked, shocked to learn that there is gambling going on in the stock market and they may not be the smartest or luckiest players in the game.

Perhaps it’s time to buy some more popcorn futures.

UPDATE—

A Science Experiment

Whether or not they have realized what they were doing, the political leaders of several states have been conducting a scientific experiment. Their implied hypothesis is that extended draconian restrictions on the activities of the people in their states would result in fewer deaths from the Wuhan virus pandemic. Simultaneously several other states took the opposite approach to managing the pandemic, effectively providing a control group for the restrictive state experiment. We now have data comparing the results of the two approaches. Has the restrictive state hypothesis been falsified?

Here’s a chart of the relative performance of the states plowing relative levels of restriction versus death rate. A higher number on the death rate axis corresponds to a higher death rate. A higher number on the restriction axis corresponds to tighter restrictions.Chart Source: Wallethub

While there are more restrictive states among the ten best performing states, restrictive states account for half of the ten worst. Thus, the data do not support the hypothesis that tight restrictions on the public’s activities necessarily will result in relatively lower death rates.

It’s possible that tight restrictions on public activity might be beneficial in some circumstance, but the data also suggest the possibility that many other factors have affected the variation in performance among the states. For example, Hawaii and Vermont have relatively high restrictions, but are their low death rates a result of their relative isolation from the nation’s large population centers or some other factor? Could such relative isolation have a part in Nebraska’s low death rate? Could California’s high poverty rate be affecting its poor performance?

The science isn’t settled on exactly why some states are doing better than others, but it does seem to show that lockdowns and other such measures weren’t and aren’t a magic bullet.

Oh, one more thing …

The average unemployment rate in the the most restrictive states is 7.1% (9% in California). The national rate is 6.7%. The rate in the least restrictive states is 4.7% (3.1 % in Iowa).

The Cost of the Minimum Wage

There’s a push to raise the minimum wage to 15 bucks an hour. Of course, the actual cost to an employer will be greater. For example, the employer’s share of the FICA tax on $15 is 93 cents, and there will be other additional expenses. But for the this exercise, let’s use $15.93 an hour as the employer’s cost. What will happen to a marginally skilled employee who provides less than $15.93 of value to the business and whose presence is a net loss to the employer?

Let’s not always see the same hands.

The real effect of a minimum wage is not to make it illegal to pay workers less than some arbitrary wage. Instead, it outlaws the participation of marginally skilled workers in the on-the-books economy, forcing them to work in the shadow economy.

BTW, some politicians see that result as a feature rather than a bug.

I’m Not Making This Up, You Know

She Guevara is espousing Capitalism to support her Socialism—If you’d rather support genuine Capitalism (and save a few bucks while you’re at it), you can buy the Hogewash! Team Lickspittle sweatshirt for only $35.99 at The Hogewash Store.

Buy one and increase this blog’s taxable profits!

I Never Had a Student Loan

I graduated with my Bachelor of Engineering degree from Vanderbilt in 1970 after paying tuition in full each semester. Fairness dictates that if student loans are to be forgiven, then those of us who paid up front should receive tuition rebates with interest. At the current legal interest rate in Tennessee (Vanderbilt is in Nashville) I would be due a bit more that $90,000.

I’d be willing to take the rebate in the form of a tax credit that I could spread over several years.