Yesterday’s Primary Election in Maryland

The legacy media headlines seems to be that the Trump-endorsed candidate Dan Cox won the Republican nomination for governor. Notice the word order in that sentence. Trump is mentioned first. That the way most of the headlines read.

Cox won about 56 % of the vote in the primary, coming out around 15 points ahead of the candidate endorsed by sitting Governor Larry Hogan.

Can Cox win in November?

Maybe. Democrats outregister Republicans by more than 2:1, but I haven’t noticed much in the way of Democrat candidate yard signs or bumper stickers in most of the state. Democrat turnout for the primary was only 16.7 %, compared to 23.8 % for Republicans. Joe Biden’s approval/disapproval polling is -12 % (37/49) in Maryland. And Wes Moore won the Democrat primary with only 36 % of the vote, so he may have trouble generating turnout in November.

Meanwhile, Cox’s showing here in Carroll County suggests he is developing an enthusiastic following. Republicans have a 2:1 registration advantage in our red county, but yesterday’s turnout was so lopsided that Cox’s vote total was 141 % of the total vote in the Democrat primary in Carroll County.

If those relative levels of enthusiasm hold, Cox might win. If Moore can frighten enough Democrats by running against Trump, he may win.

Stay tuned.

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