Bending the Curve

Here’s the Wuhan virus stats for Maryland as found around noon today at the State Department of Health’s Covid web page. These show for confirmed cases and confirmed deaths.Note that the moving average death rate has been flat at roughly 46 (±2) per day for the past two weeks. It will be useful to learn what factor or factors caused that abrupt downward bend (from the +2 deaths/day slope of the previous three weeks), and why deaths have plateaued rather than falling as initial modeling predicted.

Stay tuned.

2 thoughts on “Bending the Curve

  1. Considering the initial model was pure fantasy one shouldn’t be surprised that actual events vary from that model.

  2. A good guess is that the definition of what a COVID-related death is, and they’ve been going back through nursing home deaths certificates. they won’t find all of the ones they can call “related” for a while. Then the curve will move down. The change in the definition distorted the curve twice at least by either originally under-reporting compared to latest definition or by over-reporting now compared to the original definition. And they probably didn’t backdate the deaths appropriately.

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