Bending the Curve

Earlier this week, I posted day-by-day graphs of the Wuhan virus cases and deaths reported for Maryland by the state’s Department of Health. Here are updated charts.

First, the daily new confirmed cases—Over the past few days the curve was trending downward, but the large spike of new confirmed cases on 1 May has pushed the moving average up again. I don’t have any information about the 1 May data other than the raw number. It may have been caused by the state’s testing program finding a large at-risk population, or it there may have been a burst of new cases.

OTOH, the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths is beginning to trend down.

If the spike in new cases is just noise in the data, then Maryland may have turned the corner on the pandemic.

We shall see

2 thoughts on “Bending the Curve


  1. There are similar spikes in the IHME numbers for Virginia which do not always match the VDH numbers for Virginia.

    I assume some of this is reporting errors, and some may be due to increased testing which will quite likely result in more reported cases. Of course, those cases have always been there but we simply couldn’t test everyone to show how many cases there were at the time.

    I continue to maintain that none of these numbers ever made sense. And those numbers drove a massive overreaction that may well damage the economy hard enough and long enough that more people will die of the self-imposed economic sanctions than the virus.

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