What Are The Odds?

One of the members of the Democrat Presidential Nomination Clown Posse has radical gun control as a cornerstone of his platform.I’m not sure how broad his definition of “assault weapons” is, but let’s pretend there are 15 million weapons that would be covered by reenacting the 1994 ban list. Let’s also assume that the average owner has a couple such weapons. That would mean that there are around 7-1/2 million people armed with such firearms. For the purpose of this thought experiment, let’s further assume that the compliance rate with such a ban would be comparable to compliance with the Connecticut registration requirements enacted after the Newtown school shooting or the New York SAFE Act. That would leave “assault weapons” in the hands of over 7 million freshly-minted felons.

Even if Swalwell tried to use all of the federal civilian police agencies, conscripted all the state and local civilian police agencies, used the federal naval forces (Navy, Marines, and Coast Guard), and found away around the Posse Comitatus Act to use the Army and Air Force to enforce such a ban, his force would be outnumbered roughly two-to-one. And that’s probably being generous in Swalwell’s favor. It might be that when push came to shove, many in law enforcement and the military might side with the Second Amendment and refuse to enforce what they saw as an unconstitutional law. (We’re seeing such resistance to state laws by sheriffs in several states and even prosecutors in rural New York counties.) Also, many people who own guns not covered by the ban might side with the resistance, pushing the odds further against a successful ban.

Of course, Swalwell may think that he could make his ban work. Given the federal government’s track record enforcing Prohibition and its performance in the War on Drugs, I wouldn’t bet that way. OTOH, neither Elliott Ness nor the DEA was willing to use nukes.


9 thoughts on “What Are The Odds?

  1. “I’m the only candidate calling for this”

    Let us rephrase that: You are the only IDIOT calling for this.

    Ain’t gonna happen skippy!
    Nice try, here is your participation Trophy.

  2. How many of the military and LEOs would themselves be in possession of “assault weapons” they’re supposed to confiscate, or are close relatives of gun owners?

  3. Am I the only one who has noticed in how many of Swalwell’s pictures he looks like a mouth-breather? Really.
    And I suggest he start the confiscation by leading it himself in Southside of Chicago.

  4. I’m afraid it is not a question of odds, or numbers, but of will. And politicians, especially Leftist ones, have the will to take guns away from people, because it means the leaders become rulers and can control the people easier. So they will try – they have been slowly eroding the people’s right to keep and bear arms for decades now. But it is also a question of the will of the people to protect themselves, from evil folks and tyrants. I’d estimate that there are about 5 million gun owners, “assault weapons” and others (like me) who will say Hell No. And then there will be blood in the streets.

  5. How are they going to know who does and does not have an “assault” weapon? There is no gun registry and unless they want to demand all sales records from every FFL for the past X years they are shit out of luck. They sure aren’t going door to door politely asking if you own one. What if you say no? Will they demand a search of your house? Maybe they’ll add a question to the census, “Do you own a scary looking gun”?

    • Some states have been keeping track of certain long gun sales. For instance, Maryland has recorded sales of rifles and shotguns on its “Restricted Weapons” list for a couple of decades.

  6. It is the scary looking standard. Various prop weapons from movies with 0 functionality should probably be banned in their eyes. If Star Trek phasers existed, which look as threatening as cell phones, they’d probably be okay, despite their ability to vaporize targets. The 91/38 and its bolt action cousins used in the JFK assassination are more or less not on these guys radars.

    To some degree, the guns used looking “bad-ass” are somewhat helpful in them being selected by people who want to use them for mass shootings, but people who want to commit themselves to a mass shooting aren’t going to get depressed and give up their goal simply because you make the gun pink and hello-kitty stamped. To the very end, the guns are the means, not the motivation.

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