Later this evening, we will get the first look at how the races for the Democrat and Republican Presidential nominations are going. I’m betting that ground game will be the biggest factor in both races in Iowa.
Here’s my fearless forecast—
Sanders edges out Clinton. O’Malley doesn’t make it to 5%.
Cruz beats Trump who doesn’t do much better than Rubio. Fiorina does better than expected. Bush doesn’t make 3%. This prediction is based on the level of low-level organizational effort from each campaign. Trump has done a lot of promotion, but he doesn’t appear to have brought new voters into the process the way Ron Paul did previously. Cruz and Fiorina have worked at their ground games, and I believe those efforts will pay off for them.
Be prepared to point and laugh at my predictions in a few hours.
UPDATE—DaTechGuy takes a look at who beside Trump benefits from Trump beating Cruz this evening.
Bottom line, with the exception of Marco Rubio every single other candidate has an incentive to stop Ted Cruz from winning Iowa, even if it gives the win to Trump.
Read the whole thing and stay tuned.