Iowa Analysis

The Democrats are in trouble. Right now, the “youngster” in their race will be just short of her 70th birthday on Inauguration Day. Their other guy is a genuine Socialist.

Ted Cruz won because he got more votes that the other Republican candidates. (Duh.) He won because he got more of his voter to the poles. There was a record turnout, and the pundits were saying that should favor Trump. But Trump went in for self-promotion while Cruz got out the vote.

Meanwhile, in Iowa …

Later this evening, we will get the first look at how the races for the Democrat and Republican Presidential nominations are going. I’m betting that ground game will be the biggest factor in both races in Iowa.

Here’s my fearless forecast—

Sanders edges out Clinton. O’Malley doesn’t make it to 5%.

Cruz beats Trump who doesn’t do much better than Rubio. Fiorina does better than expected. Bush doesn’t make 3%. This prediction is based on the level of low-level organizational effort from each campaign. Trump has done a lot of promotion, but he doesn’t appear to have brought new voters into the process the way Ron Paul did previously. Cruz and Fiorina have worked at their ground games, and I believe those efforts will pay off for them.

Be prepared to point and laugh at my predictions in a few hours.

UPDATE—DaTechGuy takes a look at who beside Trump benefits from Trump beating Cruz this evening.

Bottom line, with the exception of Marco Rubio every single other candidate has an incentive to stop Ted Cruz from winning Iowa, even if it gives the win to Trump.

Read the whole thing and stay tuned.

CPAC is Coming

The Conservative Political Action Conference will be held the first weekend in March, a bit more than a month from now. I just finished registering. I expect that this year’s conference will be particularly interesting because the primary season will getting into high gear.

27 Inches of Global Warming

This time last week, folks were running around buying up all the bread, milk, and toilet paper in town because of the coming Snowpocalypse. Most of this past Monday was spent digging out from a near-record snowfall.

I was reading a piece at NRO by David French that deals with the failure of the apocalyptic environmental predictions we get from the pseudoscientific left while I was drinking my coffee this morning and looking out across a lawn that still has a foot or so of global warming on it. He does a nice job of comparing the prophets of ecological doom to preachers predicting the imminence of the Rapture. The preachers come out ahead of the ecozealots, who never seem to walk the walk they’re selling.

They’re like a drunk preacher screaming about the evils of demon rum.

Read the whole thing.