Ed Morrissey wonders if it can be sustained. I believe it can. I believe it will.
Here’s why.
If you look at the University of Colorado profs’ prediction of 300+ electoral votes for Mitt Romney, you wonder why the polling maps don’t reflect that kind of win. Their modeling is based on economic conditions in the states. People think that the economy stinks, and they want a change in the government. They want a change, but many still wonder if Mitt Romney’s the right guy. Better the devil we know …
What Mitt Romney did in the first debate was convincingly show that he was a competent guy, at least on par with Barack Obama. What Barack Obama did in that debate was convince a lot of folks that Clint Eastwood was right. Given that kind choice in this environment, the race looks a lot like 1980.
Perhaps “I’ve got five boys …” will go down with “There you go again.”
I think the drop in unemployment is far more important than the debate, especially if people vote based on economics. If people think things are finally getting better they’ll vote Obama
Ah, but there has been no real drop in unemployment. The only reason the rate “fell” was because people are giving up looking for work faster than the growth in the working age population. If labor force participation were the same as in January, 2009, the unemployment rate would be about 11%. If inflation were computed on the same basis as in 1980, Obama’s misery index would be even higher than Jimmy Carter’s.
If folks vote based on the economy, Barack Obama will be joining the unemployed.
We can certainly hope. If sane people get out to the polls, surely this will happen
It’s not just the unemployment rate, but the Dow nearing 14k. Every person with a 401k or an IRS is gaining wealth, and that’s plenty of people outside the 1%. The debates matter as hype, as a show and all that, but policies and platforms matter more. I think the election will be close, and determined entirely by the swing states. Romney could win all 3 debates, and the popular vote, and still lose because of the electoral votes. Does that sound like 1980?
IRA, not IRS..dang typos…
I wouldn’t count on 401k growth impressing the average middle-class household that has seen its annual income fall by several kilobucks a year since 2009.