I made these predictions on 29 March:
I was going to keep these predictions hermetically sealed in a mayonnaise jar on Funk & Wagnall’s porch, but here goes …
The penalty isn’t a tax, so the Anti-Injunction Act doesn’t apply. 9 to 0. Chief Justice Roberts writes the opinion.
The individual mandate is unconstitutional. 5 to 4. Justice Kennedy writes the opinion. Dissenting opinion by Justice Ginsberg.
The whole act is struck down for the lack of a severability clause. 5 to 4. Justice Thomas writes the opinion. Dissenting opinion by Justice Sotomayor.
Because the whole act fails, the Medicaid issue is moot. Per curiam.
We’ll see how well I’ve read these tea leaves in about 3 months.
The Supreme Court should rule this week, perhaps this morning. I still believe I’ve got the vote tallies correctly predicted, but I’m not sure on the opinion authors. We’ll see soon.